Sucre's board was talking about how he has the least amount of time to go and they were wondering things like why he was breaking out now.
Ooh. Now there's a bad idea. See, there are these laws that were made to discourage prison breaks and they aren't really fun laws. You wanna know what I mean? Keep in mind these are Arizona laws so the year numbers may be a little off for Illinois but it's pretty much a constant I think.
Attempting to escape (As in say someone finding one of the holes) carries a mandatory sentence of two years flat in closed custody with a permanent note on your files that say if you ever get arrested again by American authorities you will go directly back to closed custody and stay there until you get released.
Successfully escaping (Getting out and then getting caught) carries a mandatory sentence of five years flat in closed custody with a permanent note on your files that say if you ever get arrested again by American authorities you will go directly back to closed custody and stay there until you get released.
A flat sentence means a sentence without the possibility of parole.
Parole is what happens when you are released from prison early on good behavior.
Closed custody is when you are locked inside of a small cell for 23hrs and 45mins a day. Belly, cuff, and wrist chains are on you everywhere you go, even to infirmary. In the real world Death Row very closely resembles CC.
GAINS VERSUS LOSSES
Now, Linc has the most to gain and least to lose by escaping, followed by Abruzzi, T-Bag and Westmoreland, Michael (Who really shouldn't be on this list at all), C-Note and then Sucre.
Linc will die if he doesn't break out. If he breaks out and is caught before he's cleared? He dies. If he breaks out and is caught after he clears? He gets sent to prison for five years, stuck in CC.
Neither T-Bag or Abruzzi will ever be released naturally from prison. If they get caught? They will spend the rest of their natural lives in CC.
Westmoreland? Is in the same boat as the boys above him.
Michael? If he gets caught he's gonna do ten years flat in CC. But I still don't think he should be here because he knew the risks and went in on purpose, I don't think it's ever occurred to him that The Plan wouldn't work.
C-Note? Has... I honestly have no idea right now how long he has. I didn't catch his bio when it was up but according to TWoP he's done 8 months on a five-year stretch which, if that's true, puts him almost in the identical boat as Michael: Nine years, four months flat in CC upon arrest.
Sucre has one year, four months left until he gets paroled. If he gets caught? The rest of his fourteen years, ten months in CC. Why? Because he will be inelligable for parole and have to finish his last nine ears, ten months and then he'll have another five dropped on his ass. Frankly he's a dumbass. But then again so are Michael and C-Note so he's in good company. Who knows, maybe they can get in on the D&D game that's probably floating around in CC. I see Michael as a Chaotic Good, what about you?
GETTING CAUGHT OR GETTING AWAY
Also? I see Westmoreland, C-Note, Sucre and possibly Abruzzi getting caught. Why?
Because when someone is on the run* the first place the warrant officers and the other people hunting them go is to the person's significant other's and then to the person's mother's house. Statistically speaking that's where they run to. After that they check friends and known associates.
So realistically Sucre and C-Note would get picked up pretty much the second they're out because C-Note has a wife and previous address of residence he's going to and Sucre has a girlfriend/fiance with a known address and logged conjugals he's headed to.
Westmoreland may or may not get picked up at his daughter's hospital (His massive amount of money may bide him some time there) but I think he knows that and I don't think he really cares much either way.
T-Bag doesn't seem to care where the hell he's going and I think he knows he's gonna get caught eventually, he probably just wants to wreak some havoc while he's out.
Abruzzi has strong ties that can get him out of the country and keep him hidden, so really it's just a matter of getting out and getting to his people before the cops nab him. Even now his people can probably get him out of the hospital as soon as he's stable.
When The Plan was made Linc and Michael were gonna head out of the country as soon as they got out. Michael probably knows that the two of them would have had to cut all ties with their previous lives and so this means that at The Plan's conception LJ was not going to be in the picture at all, he was going to be one of those cut ties. You have to keep in mind of course that way back when The Plan was hatched Linc and LJ weren't speaking and LJ was still doing good in school and not getting into trouble (Presumably) so that seemed like a workable option. Now that LJ is on the run too and him and Linc are speaking that throws a kink in the plans and means that once they're out they have to meet-up with him and grab him and then run.
In my opinion the only way they can all do this without getting caught? Gives them each three counts of kidnapping in some degree or another. Because realistically Our Boys would have a matter of hours before they were found missing (Best case scenario) and had people sent to their places of residence.
*from bail, prison, jail, a warrant, etc.
WHY THEN WOULD THEY ESCAPE?
Which again makes me think, just what exactly are the others (especially Sucre) thinking here?[mooyoo]
That is the question here. I think Michael probably knows that once they're out they have to abandon all connections to their previous lives (Which at the point of plan would've included LJ) but the others most likely don't.
Personally? I'm not sure what the real story is but in my head and my universe Maricruz was helping Sucre with some things on the inside/outside. These things don't have to be illegal; it could be something as small as Inmate A releasing money off his books to Maricruz so that she could go and put that money on Inmate B's books (Because money can't be transferred directly from one inmate to another, just like they aren't allowed to write each other in prison). Now if Maricruz decided to up and leave Sucre I'm sure he could do everything he could to fix it, but even as... slow as he is sometimes I still don't see him risking his and their future that badly to be with her for a few minutes/hours/days, that's stupid. If there was a chance he'd be badly hurt and/or killed on the inside though then I could see him risking all that time, it doesn't mean he loves her any less, it just makes him smarter too.
C-Note? Seems to be incredibly stupid. Of course we still don't know much about him so I can assume that he has a good reason to risk everything. It's just that so far all we know is he's lieing to his wife and kid and they will find out just as soon as his name and picture hit the news. And it will hit the news. And because they break out at nine? They'll make the eleven o'clock news. Fucking idiots. And because of Linc? There will be a massive manhunt going on. Nation-wide and possibly even world-wide (If Madam VP can pull off a false attempt on her or the current president's lives and blame it on anyone from Our Gang).
Which brings me to my next point (Hopefully).
Obviously I can understand the desire to, you know, not be in prison anymore, but what are they planning on doing once they're out and not even anywhere near their families to go pick them up?[mooyoo]
Well see, that's another thing. The way I see it they have just about enough time for C-Note to get to his family and Sucre to get to Maricruz. After that? The only viable way for the families to stick together and the boys to remain free (And possibly alive, remember what's happened to anyone else associating with getting Linc free) is for everyone to follow Our Brain Boy Michael and head on down to Panama.
Which is why my Post-Escape fics will tend to have everyone and their daughter with them.